- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
Market debut of AI company behind Claude chatbot will be one of largest in US history, a test of its financial viability
Anthropic has publicly filed for a stock market listing, one of the largest debuts in history. The company’s float on the US market is likely to be a high-water mark in the multitrillion-dollar AI boom and a test of its financial viability.
Analysts and investors have valued the San Francisco-based company, founded in 2021, at more than $1.5tn. The company, which will will list under the symbol ANT, confidentially filed with US financial regulators for an initial public offering in June.
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So the investors want to get rid of the risks in their books. Hopefully they find enough MAGAs to sell the shit to.
may they go bankrupt in a short sa…er time
How did they justify that valuation? All i could find in the article is what they EXPECT AI to do and they have a “rapidly growing customer base”?
Nothing about how they plan on providing $1.5t of value, just “its AI its gonna cure cancer do you wanna get left behind?!?”
Maybe a combination of cocaine and dice.
Look up project Stargate, follow the money, it wont take much digging to figure out the why and the who.
The headlines have finally started turning and calling it what it is: a bubble economy about to burst.
They’ve finally started saying “these companies are overvalued with no real strategy or profitability, and the receipts are about to come do.”
So what do the tech companies do in response? “Quick! Pump and dump! Pump and dump!”
It’s a fucking ponzi scheme. How have we not learned this yet as a society?
I wonder who will be stupid enough to buy this burning stock. With the value based on fantasy, the gargantuan losses being real, the tangible value being close to zero (most of them don’t even own the data centers, they lease them) and a product that will probably never achieve what they promise, they will need a special kind of customer. Maybe they should do mailings to the people who bought Trumps’ crypto coins…
Yes keep inflating that bubble
I am gonna list me. 2.8 trillion.
Convince us. How many billions of dollars did you lose last quarter?
Their revenue in the first half of the year was 16.3 billion. That is a big increase over the 1.2 billion over the same period last year, but assuming that continues, then their annual revenue is only 32.6 billion. That is revenue. Not profit. They actually still operate at a loss, 693 million in the same period this year. That is a major improvement over the 2.1 billion dollar operating loss from the same period the year before. The trend line is going up. But the fact of the matter is that they are still very much operating in the red and their current investors are not getting and payoff for their investment until they are profitable.
They cannot generate a profit without either cutting on hardware and infrastructure investment, making their models more compute efficient/limiting the use of less efficient models, or increasing token prices. They will definitely not do either of the first two things, so prices are going to spike as soon as they go public so they can attract more investors. That is my prediction. The current investors will also sell out their shares immediately and dump the stock price screwing over all of the early adopters. Mark my words.
Gets even murkier when you look at how OpenAI did guarantee a certain % to pre-IPO investors.
These cretins all practiced their bullshittery in the crypto space and are now shoving it down the market’s throat via “real” IPOs
I don’t think a price spike will work either, the market has already priced LLMs at their cap, any higher and it’s cheaper to just hire more humans.
The problem with throwing in so hard with AI tools and using it to replace human labor is that when you inevitably decide that human labor is the cheaper option in the long term, it takes a lot of time and effort to find, and train and rebuild knowledge and specific skill. In the meantime, you are still relying on AI to fill the gaps. They were able to drop people fast and hard. They won’t be able to do the same with AI becuase people require more time to source and acclimate.
That means that, over the short term at least, these AI companies have a lot of industry by the balls. If they want to increase prices, even if that is the straw that breaks the camels back and gets them to start turning back to human labor, they are still going to pay those higher prices until they can.
That is not a recipe for a healthy long term business strategy for the AI companies. That will almost certianly lose them revenue in the long run, even with higher pricing. But if your investors are getting desperate for any return at all on their investment, a good solid pump and dump strategy makes that happen. They bail out before the other foot drops, collect their ill-gotten winnings, and walk away richer while the new shareholders eat shit when the price tanks.
The AI companies know this is a bubble just like everyone else. But bubbles are profitable to a select few if they do it right and that is all they ultimately care about. When the bubble pops, we’ll still have AI companies, but the market will settle somewhere far more reasonable and the tools will be expensive and niche and useful for special cases only. No AI company is trying to get to that point, it’s the just inevitable outcome. What they are trying to do is maximize their big payout, all else be damned.
I get it. I found an old rock in a ditch that has a unique shape that I like. I value it at around 150 million dollars. BOOM! Economy solved!
Yuck
Shit’s gonna pump then dump like you’ve never seen before.
Investors want their Return Of Investment. If they can’t get it via token prices, they’ll need to sell their shares.
Sooner or later a Greater Depression will come. Hopefully I will have sold my old PC, ditched my debt, and saved up enough Euros or Yuan to buy myself some Blackwell GPUs.
AI is the future. Anthropic is a dinosaur, doomed to become a historical curiosity.
I really don’t get the “AI is the future” thing. Future of what? Any of the things it’s capable of doing I would rather do myself, and the things it’s not capable of doing are the things I consider most valuable.
My future, at the very least. It has allowed me to do things that were simply outside my ability to feasibly do. I certainly can’t write programs or make art. My local AI restored some game DLC into working order, doing the archaeology and rewiring.
You are welcome to be oldschool. Your cohort are simply taking an path that will look increasingly strange to future generations.
No one is born knowing how to do anything. No technology has ever made others look strange except for early adopters. No one chooses to ride a skateboard or bike over a car and gets looked at as someone who’s old school.
You have AI psychosis. Please seek treatment. You are capable of things, actually.
Ah video games, yes I’m told those are popular. Admittedly I don’t interact with many of the things that AI is good at, other than programming. And it’s competency as a programmer is why I’m getting out of the field. Probably go be an electrician again.
It can make music , create art, and write but why would I want it? It can program but what software do I need that is so complex I need an AI to make it? 3 line sh scripts for text processing are not hard.
It can do theoretical math, but I’m not a theoretical mathematician.
It can answer emails but… Why? That’s creepy no? And once again it’s trivial to respond to correspondence.
All of the things it could replace are easier/cheaper to do by hand, and everything else is an extremely specific business case that I don’t have.
I hazard a guess that I am not alone in this case.
We have the best depressions over here. Depressions like you’ve never seen.
Economics degrees are astrology for white men. This only reinforces that point.
As someone with an economics-heavy business degree, I have said this since my intro to economics course. The fact that there are “schools”, and that some mainstream theories last only for years, not even decades, and that all governments who come in will “try” a “recipe” to see what works, is telling enough. The “laws” of economics are “kinda”, “usually”, “generally”, and above all “conditional”. There are a few things that are almost laws, like the fact that humanity is driven by the seven cardinal sins of which most can be translated into economic characteristics, and cycles (which we are hell bent in forgetting every time we are at a crest).
I’m thermodynamic’s bitch. That shit is. You can’t cheat them laws.
The fact that the seven cardinal sins have officially been codified as a principle of economics is… telling…
What are the primary drivers of humanity? Lust, greed, envy, gluttony, sloth, wrath, and pride.
“Now how can we exploit that to extract more profit” is a question only a sociopath would ask. It explains so much about industry today though, especially marketing and yes, social media.
Astrology has more reality than economics does. At least the movements and positions of the planets is something real.
People used to navigate by it, plant and harvest by it, nomads would migrate by the movements of the stars.
Economics is just… “How much confirmation bias can we use to rationalize conclusions we’ve already determined in advance, in order to convince governments and investors to give us money that doesn’t even exist?” and “How can we frame these numbers to keep people from rioting?”
You’re confusing astrology and astronomy.
No, astronomy is the modern science of measuring and studying outer space. It grew out of astrology in the same way that the modern science of chemistry grew out of alchemy.
Astrology and celestial navigation are not the same thing. Astrology has nothing to do with navigation or planting/harvesting cycles. The only similarities astrology has with any of that is the position of planets, but astrology is strictly a divinatory practice.
At least the movements and positions of the planets is something real.
Yes but being sad because mercury is in gatorade or whatever isn’t “real”, it’s literally prescribed to you by someone who says that when planets do X then your mood or success in whatever endeavors must be Y and Z
If the only thing you’ve heard about astrology is the “newspaper horoscopes” that attempt to be prescriptive in that way, then I could see having that opinion.
I would also argue that people who read those horoscopes and take them seriously, also do not understand astrology.
My point is that “Mercury in retrograde” is a real phenomenon, unlike “self-regulating market” or “rational/ethical consumer,” or any of the other things economists use to try to justify deregulation, austerity, and “infinite growth.”
My argument isn’t that Mercury retrograde has any effect on your mood. That’s a claim I didn’t make. But from the perspective of earth, there are times when Mercury appears to reverse its course. The other planets do it too. Hence, it is “more real than economics.”
As stated to you in a other comment. Astrology and celestial navigation are not the same. The only similarities they have is relying on the position of planets and celestial bodies. Astrology is pure pseudoscience.
I’m stealing this.
It would be so much more valuable as a social science/philosophy. Quantitative economics ruined the field
And gambling, let’s not forget the casinos and lottery raffles
The kind of gambling where the biggest losers are the ones who are not participating, and they keep whining that the winners should give them something too.
Ah yes, the self acclaimed winner in the wild.
Big toes youve got there, winning!
I’m doing quite ok, actually. Most probably better than 99% of the people commenting here in just about every way possible.
I’m not really a gambling man, though.
Mannnn this is going to be one hell of a test
Company that has lost $125,000,000,000 in 6 years think it’s worth $1,500,000,000,000.
What a time to be alive.
Yeah, how else would they pay off that $125 trillion, without the imaginary $150 trillion that they’re begging for.
Cart before the horse? Maybe. Unconventional? They prefer the term “innovative”…
I’m more profitable than Anthropic, check please
Please, sir, I would like a billion dollars.
