I’m just saying that a good chunk of nonvoters have never voted, so there is no preexisting pattern to predict what they would do. For the last 4 elections, the polls have been largely incorrect. It just seems like a massive assumption to say if every single person voted, he still would have won, particularly when you consider the statistical anomalies in the swing states this last election.
I have yet to understand how surveys compensate for most people ignoring unknown phone calls or texts. The ones who do answer are not representative of the total population.
I know some of people who were hit by scam surveys the last year, which are common too. Those scams scare some people away even from snail mail invites.
I think until these methods explained slowly, in small words, I am going to assume this is biased to older and more gullible , those who drift towards Trump.
Right, but that is a survey of the type of people who answer surveys. I have to wonder how many people who don’t bother to vote also do bother to answer surveys about voting.
Statistics is hard.
I’m just saying that a good chunk of nonvoters have never voted, so there is no preexisting pattern to predict what they would do. For the last 4 elections, the polls have been largely incorrect. It just seems like a massive assumption to say if every single person voted, he still would have won, particularly when you consider the statistical anomalies in the swing states this last election.
The polls said 48% tie with a 3% error margin
It ended up 49.8% to 48.3% which is within the error margin
https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2024/11/13/were-2024-election-polls-wrong-ucr-expert-weighs
The sample size for this survey was 9 times more than usual.
This is accurate data.
I have yet to understand how surveys compensate for most people ignoring unknown phone calls or texts. The ones who do answer are not representative of the total population.
I know some of people who were hit by scam surveys the last year, which are common too. Those scams scare some people away even from snail mail invites.
I think until these methods explained slowly, in small words, I am going to assume this is biased to older and more gullible , those who drift towards Trump.
This one has a pre-cleared set of respondents who want to take polls.
Which is weird. But then math makes it good. Trust us, bro.
Right, but that is a survey of the type of people who answer surveys. I have to wonder how many people who don’t bother to vote also do bother to answer surveys about voting.
So do you have any evidence to imply that willingness to respond to a survey has anything to do with political orientation?