Major AI stocks are getting obliterated lately, signaling what may be the beginning of the end for the tech euphoria.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.ca/post/73158617

Burn baby burn!!!

“Many in the market feel we have no choice but for it to work out,”

Yes this is what it everyone feels like when they are in denial…

  • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
    8·
    2 days ago

    People looking forward to this don’t realize how much all of us will get so fucked by an actual implosion.

    It won’t be Musk, Altman, etc who really suffer.

    Also, a few tech stocks went down in the day’s trading, but even those are up (way up) YTD, so I guess we’ll see what happens.

      • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
        3·
        2 days ago

        Yeah, probably true. There is a way a responsible admin might try to orchestrate a softer landing. The assholes in this administration are not the least bit responsible.

        I’m just remembering two things:

        1. The people that could not wait for the dot-com bubble to burst. That was extremely painful in the job market if you were even tangentially related to dot-com.

        2. Same thing for people that could not wait for the inflated house prices to drop. Also, extremely painful, for nearly everyone.

  • cøre@leminal.space
    11·
    3 days ago

    Many are now asking whether this hyperscale approach — in which tech monopolies build massive, energy-intensive data centers to fuel AI demand — is a sustainable approach, compared to one which deploys efficient and lightweight models for a fraction of the cost.

    For many investors at this point, the hyperscale approach simply has to work

    If they just believe hard enough it will come true and it will be their Xmas miracle.

    • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
      4·
      2 days ago

      I very much doubt hyperscalers make much sense in the long term. I have no idea what the financials are (or what insider financial scheme they have cooked up).

      But when you experiment with smaller models on very much consumer hardware - Macbooks for instance - or when you look at how costs per 1M tokens has dropped over the years, I don’t see how this massive, massive buildout makes any sense. When I hear Elon talking about building “compute in space” as almost a foregone concusion I wonder if he’s not running a super-scam or if he has a head injury.

  • isekaihero@ani.social
    10·
    3 days ago

    They’ve been pushing for the government to take a stake in AI companies so that when they go bankrupt it’s no longer a private sector issue and they can justify a bailout. I am strongly against the government or taxpayers being involved. The AI should stay completely private sector so that when they go bankrupt they get NO BAILOUTS.

  • OpenPassageways@lemmy.zip
    601·
    4 days ago

    I’m not really seeing a bloodbath, S&P 500 still up more than 10% YTD.

    If that is a bloodbath then what term are they going to use for an actual crash?

    • jj4211@lemmy.world
      151·
      3 days ago

      The AI sector has suffered losses to the tune of 20-59% over the last month or so.

      Yes some of them are still up YTD (some are even down YTD), but at the same time, the situation in 1929 was similarly less bad looking if you started from January of that year, but the graphs showing how bad it was in practice always start in September.

  • Goodbye_bluesky@lemmy.world
    971·
    4 days ago

    I sincerely hope that a few of the fascist tech bros get absolutely obliterated. If all of them were gone with the snapped of a finger the world would instantly be a better place.

    • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      2 days ago

      I doubt it. I could see something like OpenAI and Anthropic bought up by someone else. Google, MS, Oracle?

      I doubt any of these people will ever miss a meal or have no roof over their head.

      Even if these people were to be worth 1/100th of what they are worth now, they’d still be plenty comfortable.

    • Formfiller@lemmy.world
      3·
      2 days ago

      If we have a revolution and round capitalist class up and arrest them the world will be instantly better

      • gnutrino@programming.devEnglish
        50·
        4 days ago

        I don’t think a bail out would work (which isn’t to say the Trump administration won’t try it - you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid). If they can’t work out how to make a profit after $2T of capex, more money on the furnace isn’t going to help.

        As much as the bank bailouts after 2008 left a bad taste in my mouth, banks are at least self evidently a profitable business that were able to successfully use the bailout to stay afloat.

        I could potentially see the AI companies’ creditors getting a bailout but most of them seem to be private equity so a bailout would be really unpopular (although see my above comments on not betting against the current US leadership doing something stupid).

        On the bright side, there’s a real chance we could see Larry Ellison go personally bankrupt. He lives on loans secured against Oracle shares and Oracle is currently indebted up to its eyeballs and borrowing at basically junk rates. If it goes down, those loans get called and he eats shit (to the delight of Sun Microsystems fans everywhere).

        • coyootje@lemmy.world
          3·
          2 days ago

          you can never confidently predict they won’t do something stupid

          I’d argue you can predict they will do something stupid because that’s basically all they’ve done ever since they took office

          • vaultdweller013@sh.itjust.works
            10·
            3 days ago

            Ideally it all gets sold off to pay debts, but the funniest thing would be that its forcibly liquidated after creditors get to the copper sniffing crack head stage of debt repayment and the whole things gets torn apart.

    • setsubyou@lemmy.world
      7·
      2 days ago

      Microwaves have been immensely successful though. In some countries >95% of all households have one. In the US they’re more common than cable TV ever was. They went through a boom in the 1980ies where that number shot up from 10%-ish to 80%-ish. If AI is like microwaves it’ll be considered essential in another 10 years.

      • laranis@lemmy.zip
        10·
        2 days ago

        If microwaves are the analogy for AI then I’m good with it. In my house today I have an oven, a stovetop, a counter top toaster oven/air fryer thingy, and a microwave. Each serves its own purpose but none replaces the other completely.

        If in the future AI is a tool that sits and waits it’s turn for me to use it for the thing it is best at then I think it will have a place.

        If instead it costs a subscription fee, is forced into every other appliance, replaces jobs en mass, and accelerates the downfall of the climate I’m gonna pass.

    • floofloof@lemmy.caOP
      4·
      2 days ago

      No one ever believed in the Metaverse except one very rich weirdo. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies were the 2010s’ really big hype wave.

        • marzhall@lemmy.world
          3·
          2 days ago

          Heck, it was already beaten to the punch by VR Chat and arguably 2nd Life eons before. He clearly just needed some ‘big new concept’ to pitch to investors about how they could 10x in two years after FB users flatlined

          • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
            2·
            2 days ago

            What I found bizarre - and I didn’t see anyone commenting on this, although I can hardly be the only one that noticed - is how much the character design reminded me of the Wii aesthetic? Not really sure why.

            Also, it was not even an original name. I realize most of these asshats lift most their ideas from sci-fi, but since I actually liked fiction like Snow Crash, I was annoyed by that, as well.

    • Carl@anarchist.nexusEnglish
      10·
      3 days ago

      I mean, you could have your retirement shift towards long-term bonds instead of stocks. Normally I’d suggest index funds too, but those are all tied up in the bubble right now. You don’t need to just sit there and watch your money evaporate.

      • partial_accumen@lemmy.world
        13·
        3 days ago

        I mean, you could have your retirement shift towards long-term bonds instead of stocks

        With the rise in the Federal Fund rates, that poster would be screwed with bonds too, much worse in fact. Previously issue long term bonds are today worth a fraction of what they were earlier this year.

        People won’t buy your old bonds (at their lower interest rates) when the US Treasury is issuing new ones right now with much higher yields. You can still hold the bonds to maturity to get all of your money back, but if you need to sell your bonds on the secondary market right now for cash to live on (presumably for those already in retirement) you’re going to take a sizable loss.

        Gold is significantly down too. 17% decline in value year-to-date.

        Residential real estate is down with the increase mortgage rates. Commercial real estate is in the toilet too since COVID really.

        The stock market, even with this recent dip, is actually actually outperforming most other traditional investments. The good news for folks with retirement savings who are still working is that no value is actually lost until you sell you investments (stocks/bonds/gold/whatever). If you’re still a decade or more away from retirement thats a LONG time for a recover to bring back value from this current downturn.

    • iamthetot@piefed.caEnglish
      31·
      3 days ago

      You can and should be involved in what your retirement is invested in. If you’re concerned about this, you could move that money into something safer.

  • nosuchanon@lemmy.world
    321·
    4 days ago

    The 2098 2008 crash was caused by the rate of mortgage growth beginning to slow. It was a confidence issue in MBS, similar to the AI bubble now. People are starting to lose confidence in their investments and wondering if it is still a good idea to buildout massive data centers.

    • CharlesDarwin@lemmy.worldEnglish
      2·
      2 days ago

      It was wild seeing the panic after DeepSeek. I have no idea what is propping it up after that.

      I think they hope to keep it going based on vibes and keeping hardware so expensive (for others) that companies don’t opt to build their own local rigs to run a model that is probably “good enough” for a lot of tasks.

      AI is not going anywhere, but the speculative fictions around all this are going to look wild in the aftermath, IMHO. Like tulip-bulb mania stupid. The notion that everyone needs “frontier models” all the time for all tasks and is going to pay enough in fees to do it just seems crazy to me.

      • nosuchanon@lemmy.world
        2·
        2 days ago

        I think they hope to keep it going based on vibes and keeping hardware so expensive (for others) that companies don’t opt to build their own local rigs to run a model that is probably “good enough” for a lot of tasks.

        That didn’t occur to me. Makes sense tho. I sort of was wondering why companies hadn’t figured it out yet. Investment into running on your own hardware needs to be super expensive so they can sell you their AI service.

    • Speltrong@feddit.org
      21·
      4 days ago

      The 2098 crash was caused by the rate of mortgage growth beginning to slow. It was a confidence issue in MBS, similar to the AI bubble now>

      I read that typo like a satire historical comment

        • mad_lentil@lemmy.caEnglish
          2·
          4 days ago

          Lol like we’re going to have computers then. I’ll be happy if we get to keep indoor plumbing

        • Speltrong@feddit.org
          2·
          4 days ago

          Lol that’s why I quoted the original seconds after it was made. I’m no stranger to typos and spelling errors and the mocking that follows