Iran will completely shut the strategic Strait of Hormuz if Trump executes threats to target Iranian energy facilities, the country’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement on Sunday.
Trump on Saturday threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48-hours, suggesting a significant escalation barely a day after he talked about “winding down” the war, now in its fourth week.
In their Sunday statement Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also said companies with U.S. shares will be ‘completely destroyed’, if Iranian energy facilities were targeted by Washington and energy facilities in countries that host U.S. bases will be ‘lawful’ targets.
Again, again and again Trump has shown that he follows the mindset of the bully, and he’s not even subtle or sophisticated about it: he threatens the other side to get something out of them and if they concede in some way (and merelly trying to accomodate him is seen as a concession), then after a while he’ll come at them again with further threats and demanding even more, whilst if they pushback he TACOes.
We saw this with Europe: Trump does the whole Tariff thing and the EU Commission goes for a trade treaty to accomodate him. He kept on using Tariffs as threat against the EU and EU nations and didn’t took long for him to break that treaty. Meanwhile with the whole Greenland thing Europe started preparing for War and various European nations even sent military trigger forces there with the result that Trump TACOed.
So what Iran is doing is exactly the correct response to somebody like him: “You do that and we’ll fuck your shit up even more than now”.
Trump assumes the IRGC are as dumb as him and the people he’s surrounded himself with, which is going to be catastrophic for how this goes for him. The IRGC are theocratic authoritarians who are not motivated by money, and he can’t conceive of this, so is clearly at a total loss as to how to handle the situation he has created
Just like the taliban, they aren’t motivated by money, that is insightful. They believe in something. Which means none of what the US can do will work on them, just as it didn’t with the taliban.
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Worked on the Houthis though. Iran might be a tougher nut but they won’t sacrifice everything just to keep the Strait closed
Then again, keeping power over the Strait is one of the most valuable pieces they still have on the board
What worked with Houthis? they kinda paused because genocide was kinda paused, their demands were met and they made it clear they are ready to join again to fight Epstein coalition.
Ah yes, the Houthis paused because their demands were met
pats head
Whatever makes you feel good :)
Raising oil prices is the ONLY card Iran has to play.
Oil AND gas.
Which in turn will propagate to massive inflation in the West and possibly even problems with food production.
Further they can fuck up the economy of the Gulf states which are allies of America to such a point that they end up in a death spiral from which they can’t recover.
but as far as cards go, it is the ace of spades.
Closing the straight is multifaceted, but yeah, hurting the global economy is pretty much their only strategy due to the asymmetric nature of this war.
Idk, a bomb vest in Disneyland would be an interesting maneuver
Mossad would do everything possible to help some mentally ill do that. Talk is they are hard at doing such.
Just pointing out there’s less technical options
I’m in a very very privileged position to be able to say this, but I am more than happy to pay a little bit extra at the pump and on my gas bill, just for that colossal fuckwomble to be shown up on the world stage for being a weapons grade tosser.
Is it childish? Yes. Does it make me feel slightly better about the world? Also yes.
How long do you think that position will last?
If energy infrastructure is destroyed, then “paying a little bit extra at the pump” is just the beginning. You will need to reduce your overall consumption by 15-20%.
Remember the worst month of Covid? That’s the last time consumption was reduced so heavily. Now imagine that Covid lifestyle for 5 years as energy infrastructure is rebuilt.
The joy of Trump’s downfall will not be enough to mask the real economic pain, unfortunately.
It will accelerate energy transition.
Even Fertilizers can be produced from renewable power (the hydrogen needed to make Amonia can be produced by electrolosys) and need not be made from gas.
A short sharp pain might be in the best mid and long term interest for most of us, the environment and even parts of the Middle East itself (American interference there makes no sense if their Oil is just another unimportant mineral product) and it might even lead to the end of the USD Reserve Currency status.
I also recognize my privileged position when I say this: I’m pretty sure I can tolerate it longer than the American Oligarchs will tolerate the loss of profit and start using those politicians they’ve purchased to put an end to it.
I feel like this would be a net win for the world. Everyone in the old empire is shooting themselves in the dick right now. If Iran stops the flow of oil, countries are going to be forced to very, very, very quickly invest heavily in renewables more than they already are.
This idiot may have single handedly put a dent in global warming.
Also an Oil Shock will almost certainly cause the AI bubble to burst, another win which also reduces global warming.
Personally I would also love to see the ended of the Reserve Currency status for the USD, which is a possible consequence of the reduction in use of Oil (though it’s a less likely outcome in the short and even mid term).
PS: By the way, great username.
Now imagine that Covid lifestyle for 5 years
You say that as if I haven’t already been doing that.
Yeah nah probably about a day or two.
Shit. Maybe the Alberta oil sands will finally be profitable! Haha, nah just kidding. They wont.
I read they are profitable above 60 a barrel, like 15 years back.
They’ve been profitable for some time.
A lot of people say they’re profitable at $60/barrel, but it’s more like between $50 and $80, depending on a bunch different factors, such as location and extraction method.
But that’s only considering profitability in the terms of the current political system.
If a new system came along that factored in harms to the environment, global warming, etc., they could go back to being unprofitable.
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Counterpoint to your counterpoint : Go rim a goat.
So the tens of millions that are going to suffer famine across the global south, and the tens of thousands that will die in the third world hospitals without power, are price you’re willing to pay?
Good to know.
No you illiterate fuck, I said I’d pay a little more at the pump to see one of the most narcissistic and dangerous world leaders get knocked down a peg or two on the world stage.
It’s soul destroying seeing the human cost of such a conflict, but your virtue signalling is both misplaced and ineffective.
You don’t get one without the other. You don’t get to choose.
I don’t disagree with you. It’s desperately sad.edit: I’d made the erroneous assumption this was a reply to a higher level comment.
What is it that you’re suggesting here?
You’re literally cheering for what you view as set of political upsides to war, and when I point out the rest of it, you get defensive.
I wonder why.
I think this wondering you’re doing is the root cause of your problem.
You’ve come up with an idea that I think there’s any political upsides to war based on some assumption that I haven’t quite figured out yet.
You’ve come up with an entire “rest of it” which doesn’t really follow anything presented in the original post.
Your “gotcha” moment doesn’t exist and is aimed at someone deeply saddened and angered by this pointless war.
I appreciate you think that you have a point, and that it’s coherent, but you don’t, and it’s not.
If they don’t have a point then what the fuck have you been going on about?
Another extremely reasonable statement by Iran
Did it open back up at some point?
Yesterday(?) they announced it was open to anyone not working with the US/Israel
They’ve been letting some ships through heading to India and China, and were talking about setting up a vetting system to allow more ships through
I thought they were mining the strait? How are they gonna control who hits the mines?
Anyone that mines keeps charts to keep their own ships clear.
They put mines on the international part, not their own lanes.
They guide or pilot through the unmined passages.
They can’t, which is why I’m skeptical that they actually laid any mines.
And it looks like at at least some level, the Trump administration assumed their only means of closing the straight was mines, which would have prevented them from using it as well.
Iran’s new strategy of selective closure via missiles and drones clearly surprised the Trump administration.
After the regime change, we’ll see in what country
I don’t know enough about all this, but how difficult is it for them to keep it shut? Do they just bomb any boat that tries to go through it?
Merely threatening would be enough.
and insurance costs will do the blockade.
Don’t even need bombs, it’s not very wide that can shoot at them with artillery very easily.
No, they allow boats they clear through. Boats have obscured ownership, most are registered to the same three countries, little backwaters, so if they attack one specifically, it’s because they got word their ownership is billinaire US or Israel or connected.
Great job , and now taco ?
I wish, but no, it’s just deeper into the escalation trap for Trump.
hmm?
